Numbers Of Uninsured Could Reach 65 Million By 2019

Even as Congress organizes special health care reform committees for the purposes of developing comprehensive legislation that would transform the fabric of health care in American, one group has something to say.

A report issued by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation offers reasons to take reform seriously. In the report, the RWJF projects that if health care reforms are not enacted by 2019 the cost of health care could double, causing the number of uninsured Americans to rise to 65.7 million.

Additionally, researchers from the Urban Institute working with the RWJF have conducted an analysis using special models to simulate how coverage and costs may develop or change over time. It has targeted the next ten-year period to make estimates up until 2019.

Three different scenarios were constructed then examined for potential outcomes. Starting with the worst case, if it is assumed that income growth remains slow so will the rates on health care costs. Erring on the middle case, growth is somewhat faster and growth rates on health care costs are lower. The best case, according to the study, looks at full employment, with rapid income growth, and much slower growth in health care costs.

Regardless, of the economic scenario, there will be serious strains on business owners and their employees for the next ten years should no reform take place. A significant number will lose employer-based health care coverage while millions would become uninsured.

Public programs would grow to compensate for the lack even as health care spending increases. Perhaps, the hardest hit during this time would be middle-class working families.

“This report makes clear that as battered as our health system has been in recent years, unless we take action, the worst is far from over,” said Risa Lavizzo-Mourey, RWJF’s president and CEO.

“Without comprehensive health care reform, costs will continue to skyrocket, millions more will lose insurance, and the health of Americans will suffer. Congress must act quickly and decisively to make quality health care more affordable and accessible for all Americans.”